My portfolio's performance for the year. A little better than 11%.Not my target of 20%, but still not too shabby.

GOLDCORP INC [G] is up +9.78% for me. Not bad. Lets hope it holds.

Call me a creature of habit. Call me irresponsible, but I just could not resist buying some more Goldcorp. Ya ya, I know, but it was down to fifteen and change. Fifteen!!

Anyway it is up to $16.18     +0.92 (6.03%)  Dec 18 - Close 

Lets hope it stays above $16, or goes even higher.
 

I really was expecting some sort of downturn or collapse in October but, nothing. Not even a jitter.

With the rejection of the keystone xl pipeline trans canada pipeline (trp) is down just under 5%. Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE:KMI) was down form about $15 to around $10, but has since recovered. [edit; I was wrong on kmi. Don't know what I was looking at. was around 25.50, now around 23.44 Still might be a buy] A missed buying opportunity with kmi but perhaps a buying opportunity with trp.

I haven't bought anything, but my portfolio is still doing fairly well. I am at about 12% return. Not my target of 20% but still, pretty healthy. And, I am sitting on a wad of cash.

Here is my portfolio performance.

My portfolio is doing moderately well. The upturns in the s&p 500 and composite indicate we are in the start of an uptrend and should start buying.

 My two oil stocks are up (as are other oil stocks) and there is no sign of an October crash. Another week and I might start buying again.

CANADIAN OIL SANDS LTD [COS] (up for me)    +65.77%
SUNCOR ENERGY INC NEW [SU]      (up for me)    +13.25%

Wow. 

I am glad I hung onto both can. oil sands and suncor.

CANADIAN OIL SANDS LTD [COS] up +57.25% [for me]

SUNCOR ENERGY INC [SU] up +2.82% [for me]

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/suncor-goes-hostile-shakes-up-industry-with-bid-for-canadian-oil-sands-ltd-1.3257093

Well, I sold all my questionable and loosing stocks. Surprisingly I am not completely out of oil.
I held on to;
CANADIAN OIL SANDS (COS) up [for me] +8.19%
SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) up [for me] +3.98%

This is my portfolio performance year to date. It is about 5%.

I just don`t understand the stock market right now.

Oil stocks are down even further. My slight profit has disappeared and now I am in a loss position. I get we are awash in oil worldwide, but what is fundamentally different now than a couple of weeks ago? Nothing. Nothing except the refugee crisis in Europe, the ongoing Syrian civil war, and Russia about to get involved in the middle east. All potentially bad things, but which should make oil go up, not down.

Maybe everyone is running to the u.s. market. Yet my past stellar u.s. winners are flat or slightly declining.

And TD, which was supposed to play on a strong u.s. economy and weaker Canadian economy is down.

Nothing makes sense.

Maybe we are heading for a market crash and all this weirdness is foreshadowing. October is (it seems) always a bad month. There is a crash happening in Brazil. Maybe its the canary in the coal mine.

Ya....

This is what I'm going to do. Liquidate every loosing or questionable position. If there is a crash get ready to buy a few select high quality names, and if there isn't a crash, wait till mid November to buy some good names.

Ok. Already done.

A trader's comments about Brazil;
For investors expecting today’s real bounce to continue, Rabobank currency strategist Christian Lawrence has another old saying he points to: “You only have two hopes: Bob Hope and no hope, and Bob Hope is dead.”

Someone was asking what my 5% rule was, so let me explain.

Actually there are two rules; but like any rules, they are not hard and fast, but guidelines.

The first is, don`t buy a stock until it has had a recent 5% increase; until it has shown you it is headed in the right direction.

The second is, if a stock falls more than 5 %, sell.


The first rule instantly makes a lot of sense to most people, but they are quick to point out that by following this rule you will miss out on quick moving opportunities. That is true, but it will also protect you from loss and capital stagnation.
I have watched Goldcorp and oil stocks for several years. I think I know them pretty well. I know there trading ranges and what to expect. I bought both Goldcorp and various oil stocks on their lows, without waiting for a 5% increase. I did quite well with the oil stocks, but suffered a loss with Golcorp. So, is it worth the risk? Probably not.



The second rule, if a stock falls more than 5 %, sell, people have a much harder time embracing, but it, or a version of it, is very important. A friend of mine complained that by doing this all you are doing is admitting you were wrong and locking in your losses. That is one way of looking at it. Unfortunately that is the wrong way.
Really what you are doing is locking in any unrealized gains, and preserving capital.
Think of it this way; If a stock falls 5%, it can get back to where it was quite easily. But what if it falls 10, 20, or even 50%? A drop of 20% requires a rise of 25% to get even. That is not unheard of, but not common. A drop of 50% requires a rise of 100% to break even. Again, not impossible, but highly unlikely. And anyway, what would you rather have; a double getting you to break-even, or a 95% return?

My portfolio performance since buying more oil.

Contrary to advise from other investor friends I have piled  back into oil. I have bought some suncor, arc energy, can oil sands, royal dutch shell, and baytex. I didn't buy much baytex, but enough if it recovers.

My rationale; Everything was so low anything was a good deal.
 Oil is around $40 u.s. a barrel. An increase to $50 a barrel (which I think is quite possible, even by the end of the year ) is an increase of 25%. That must translate into higher stock prices.

I just bought a small position in Toronto-Dominion Bank TSE:TD 49.52 (-1.51%)
My reasoning is this;
TD actually has about half its branches in the u.s., but reports earnings in can. dollars. If TD does nothing, but with the can. dollar down 30%, it should still realize 15% earnings. Also, it pays a dividend, and is very safe.

This year has certainly not been as good for investing for me as last year. The market is down 5% this year but my problem is my morbid fascination with Goldcorp.
Yes, I bought more without telling you.
Yes, I didn't follow my own rules.
Yes, I am loosing money; lots.

Goldcorp gain locked in! I am very happy with this trade.

I received a new issue notice about;
FAIRFAX INDIA HLDGS

so I put in an order for some. Release price is $10.00 u.s. We will see how it does.

Not only am I in the green with Goldcorp, I am well in the green.
GOLDCORP [G]     up     +30.17%

There was a slight downturn today, and being skittish, I put in a sell order. I'm trying to lock in my 30% gain.

Goldcorp has finally climbed a little bit. Today its at $24.64, up 5.43% today. I am in the green.

December was a very tumultuous time in the market, and I think I did a very safe thing. I didn't buy or sell anything.

How did I do in 2014? Well, I am up about 21%. Not super terrific, but not too shabby.