If you have read any of my previous posts you will know I am not impressed with financial advisors and even less impressed with mutual funds. The problem is that they are not paid commensurately with their results.
As an investor I don't think someone else, someone supposedly helping me, should make more money off of my money than I do. I don't mind paying money, even more money, if I'm making money, but nothing pissess me off more than paying money while I loose money. A fund operator should never ever ever make more money than the investor.
So, I have a great idea! I want to start a mutual fund or ETF that only collects a fee when it preforms and you make money.
It would work like this;
Say the fund charges a 2% fee. If the fund makes more than 2% the operator gets the full fee. If the fund makes less than 2% the profit is split. If the fund looses money the fund operator gets nothing.
This way the goals of the fund operator are aligned with the investors. I wouldn't even mind paying a percentage more to get results.
I wonder if any mutual funds have balls enough to do it. Now, just to get an appointment with a ballsy mutual fund. Hmmm.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
I've been watching the markets but have decided not to buy anything. Instead I'm going to take my money and pay down my home mortgage. I can do 20% a year so I'm doing 20% now and 20% in January. It won't quite be paid off, but it will be very very close.
While gathering the money I'm doing something which I think is quite clever. First, of course, I sold all my losers. Then I sold my principal investment in any stock that was flat or had increased but turned down. That gave me enough money for this round, but in January I'll need to sell my principal investment in some of my winners.
While gathering the money I'm doing something which I think is quite clever. First, of course, I sold all my losers. Then I sold my principal investment in any stock that was flat or had increased but turned down. That gave me enough money for this round, but in January I'll need to sell my principal investment in some of my winners.
Monday, November 5, 2012
The markets have survived what would have been, black Monday [Black Monday refers to Monday October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed], and the black days of the 1929 crash.
[On October 24 ("Black Thursday"), the market lost 11% of its value at the opening bell. On October 28, "Black Monday", ... the slide continued with a record loss in the Dow for the day of 38.33 points, or 13%. The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, ... the Dow lost an additional 30 points, or 12% ]
Hurricane Sandy has come and gone, the machinations of Europe have continued with no real resolution, the slowdown in china continues and the markets have marched on. A market perfect storm has not materialized.
The U.S. presidential election is tomorrow. Regardless of the outcome I think it is time to re enter the market. I've just got to remember my second rule, only buy stock when the stock is trending up and has shown at least a recent 5% growth.
[On October 24 ("Black Thursday"), the market lost 11% of its value at the opening bell. On October 28, "Black Monday", ... the slide continued with a record loss in the Dow for the day of 38.33 points, or 13%. The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, ... the Dow lost an additional 30 points, or 12% ]
Hurricane Sandy has come and gone, the machinations of Europe have continued with no real resolution, the slowdown in china continues and the markets have marched on. A market perfect storm has not materialized.
The U.S. presidential election is tomorrow. Regardless of the outcome I think it is time to re enter the market. I've just got to remember my second rule, only buy stock when the stock is trending up and has shown at least a recent 5% growth.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Hmmm... Strange things appear when you look closely. The stocks that were down over 5% from the high since buying [ and some just over 5%] are;
- the BMO mutual fund ...- .. I put in an order to SELL
- Canadian oil sands .......- .. I put in an order to SELL
- Enbridge ......................- .. I put in an order to SELL
-Encana ..........................- .. I put in an order to SELL
-Royal Dutch Shell ..........- .. I put in an order to SELL
Suncor was down 4.88% from the high since buying, but I put in a sell order anyway.
Although these will be sold they are not forgotten. They all now go on my watch list. I need a change in direction and at least a 5% increase from their coming low to buy back in.
Funny, its mainly the energy stocks that are down from their high since I bought. Perhaps this is an indicator that the world economy is slowing down....or perhaps that the unrest in the middle east has subsided, or that the coming u.s. election will solve everything.. More likely it indicates something we really can't quite fathom [but that the pundits will ascribe to whatever they said].
- the BMO mutual fund ...- .. I put in an order to SELL
- Canadian oil sands .......- .. I put in an order to SELL
- Enbridge ......................- .. I put in an order to SELL
-Encana ..........................- .. I put in an order to SELL
-Royal Dutch Shell ..........- .. I put in an order to SELL
Suncor was down 4.88% from the high since buying, but I put in a sell order anyway.
Although these will be sold they are not forgotten. They all now go on my watch list. I need a change in direction and at least a 5% increase from their coming low to buy back in.
Funny, its mainly the energy stocks that are down from their high since I bought. Perhaps this is an indicator that the world economy is slowing down....or perhaps that the unrest in the middle east has subsided, or that the coming u.s. election will solve everything.. More likely it indicates something we really can't quite fathom [but that the pundits will ascribe to whatever they said].
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
I just checked how the BNN experts, the BMO mutual fund, and I, are doing. We are all in the green.
The BNN experts are up 3.4%
The BMO mutual fund is up 0.48%
And, across my trading accounts and my wife's, I'm up between 7% and 13%.
I have a friend with whom I talk about stocks and trading strategies. He told me once, " the worst thing that can happen to a trader is that they are right a couple of times. When that happens they think they know everything, ignore market warnings, and blow out their portfolio."
I need to be careful.
The BNN experts are up 3.4%
The BMO mutual fund is up 0.48%
And, across my trading accounts and my wife's, I'm up between 7% and 13%.
I have a friend with whom I talk about stocks and trading strategies. He told me once, " the worst thing that can happen to a trader is that they are right a couple of times. When that happens they think they know everything, ignore market warnings, and blow out their portfolio."
I need to be careful.
Monday, September 17, 2012
If you use Open Office, I've created, and just uploaded to the Open Office template website a stock portfolio tracking spreadsheet booklet.
You can download it from; http://templates.services.openoffice.org/
Do a search for stock or rsstacey.
To get it to work, you MUST install GETQUOTE, a free extension to OpenOffice.org Calc.
It is listed at; http://extensions.services.openoffice.org/en/project/GetQuote
GETQUOTE is available at: Http://getquote-tedsoft.blogspot.ca/
I'm pretty sure my spreadsheet and GETQUOTE will also work with Libre Office.
Take a look at it and let me know what you think and how it could be improved.
You can download it from; http://templates.services.openoffice.org/
Do a search for stock or rsstacey.
To get it to work, you MUST install GETQUOTE, a free extension to OpenOffice.org Calc.
It is listed at; http://extensions.services.openoffice.org/en/project/GetQuote
GETQUOTE is available at: Http://getquote-tedsoft.blogspot.ca/
I'm pretty sure my spreadsheet and GETQUOTE will also work with Libre Office.
Take a look at it and let me know what you think and how it could be improved.
It seems that with stocks, given enough time, everyone, experts and neophytes like me, can be right.
Goldcorp [G] is around $45.00 today.
$36.05 up to $45.00 is not too shabby. What is that, a 25% increase? Not too shabby at all.
Now the hard part....following my second rule and not selling anything until I see a 5% or greater drop in the price.
Goldcorp [G] is around $45.00 today.
$36.05 up to $45.00 is not too shabby. What is that, a 25% increase? Not too shabby at all.
Now the hard part....following my second rule and not selling anything until I see a 5% or greater drop in the price.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
too clever for my own good
My clever purchase of Goldcorp doesn't look so clever today. Goldcorp (TSE:G) dropped 10.18% today to close at $33.80. Yikes!
If I follow my rules I should sell it, but I'm just not sure. I think gold is going up and consequently gold miners. Goldcorp should go up, but will it go down more in the mean time. what to do, what to do.
If I follow my rules I should sell it, but I'm just not sure. I think gold is going up and consequently gold miners. Goldcorp should go up, but will it go down more in the mean time. what to do, what to do.
Monday, July 9, 2012
I'm still tracking the stocks recommended by BNN's guests, but I am a little behind in updating my list with current recommendations.
However, this is the current standing[s]with what I've logged.
The all [Canadian] recommended stock portfolio is; DOWN - 3.86%
My quick outside of my rules, pick, GoldCorp [tse:g], is at $38.33 today. I am really disappointed with goldcorp, but I am still above water. I've still got some of that BMO mutual fund [GGF70148] and it is up 1.14%. That is not terrific, but at least its on the positive side.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
winners and losers
As of May 5th I was tracking 214 stocks recommended by the BNN guest experts. This isn't all of them, this is just the recommended stocks on the TSE. American stocks and stocks on the TSE venture exchange were dropped. Of the resulting 214 stocks, as of May 5th, 133 were losers and 81 were winners. As a percentage, 63% were losers and 37% were winners.
I got thinking though, maybe the losers were losers just because I didn't give them enough time. You know, you see something, you're sure its going to go up, and you buy it but a little too soon. I8 just did that with Goldcorp.
So, today May 24th I checked these winning and loosing portfolio's.
Of the 133 stocks in the loosing portfolio, 8 are now winners. Overall this portfolio is down 15.25%.
Of the 81 stocks in the winning portfolio, 10 are now losers. Overall this portfolio is up 9.51%.
Now, we have 79 winners and 135 losers, which still comes out to 37% winners and 63% losers, but with 18 stocks switching between winners and losers.
Interesting, very interesting.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
I've been busy
Aside from buying Goldcorp, I've been busy.
I watch Business News Network [BNN] pretty much every day. This is a TV channel dedicated to stocks and investing. They get experts on who pontificate about the markets, and stocks, and summarize by giving their three top picks.
Well, you can subscribe to the BNN top picks and they will email them to you, showing who recommended the stock, when they bought it, and for how much.
So, since about February I've subscribed to the BNN top picks newsletter and have been tracking them. The top picks include current top picks as well as past top picks from the last time that particular guest was on BNN.
So, the results;
If you bought all the Canadian stocks recommended by the experts, as of today your portfolio would be down 6.54%. Yikes! And my BMO mutual fund [GGF70148], is down 2.14% from December.
So much for experts.
breaking the rules
Last week I gathered some money, bought some stock, and broke my rules.
The year or so previous to doing this investment strategy, I was in and out of GoldCorp [G]. I knew it traded in a range between high thirties to high forties, sometimes even low fifties. So last weeek when I saw G in the mid thirties I gathered some money and bought in. I didn't wait till I saw a 5% [or better] increase. Consequently I bought G at $36.05. I don't think that is terrible, but if I'd waited till it bottomed and turned, I would have bought it today around $35.31.
Today Goldcorp [G] is $35.31, up +2.12 (6.39%) on the day.
52 week range is $32.52 - $55.93.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
had to sell
No matter your strategy, life always gets in the way. My stepson is buying a condo and asked to borrow some money. So, I had to liquidate my portfolio. Overall I figure I made about two and a half percent. Not terrific, but not too bad for a few months.
When I gather some more money I'll start up again.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
thinking about this strategy
I was thinking about my trading strategy, this strategy.
Everyone says you can't time the market and that you can never hit the absolute top or pick the absolute bottom. This strategy concedes that fact. We don't try to pick the absolute top or the absolute bottom. What we do however is count on a change of $% to indicate we are past an absolute bottom or absolute top.
We buy once an up trend has started, and sell once a downturn has started. If we "think" something is going to take off we add it to our pool and watch it, but only buy once a 5% up-tick confirms our thoughts.
I like this strategy. I think it is going to pay off.
Friday, February 3, 2012
TSFA
I haven't used this years TSFA room, so I transferred $5,000.00 from this account to my TSFA account. I will need to remember this at the end of the year when I calculate how the portfolio did.
month end review - new purchases
I reviewed all the stocks in my pool, winners and loosers, to find stocks that have shown a recent 5% increase or more. I settled on the following;
Name Symbol Price Amount Cost
20.65
|
100
|
$2,065.00
|
||
7.36
|
100
|
$ 736.00
|
||
100
|
$2,692.00
|
|||
100
|
$2,395.00
|
|||
100
|
$3,716.00
|
|||
100
|
$2,344.00
|
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
month end review - my wife's u.s. stocks
my wife's u.s. stocks are doing ok. Both Kellog [k] and Molson-Coors [TAP] are down a little, but not enough to sell.
month end review
My portfolio is up 2.8% overall. The stocks that are down are quite surprising. Trans Canada Pipeline [TRP], Canadian National Railway [CNR], and Fairfax Financial [FFH] are all down over 5%. These are good companies, but, from where I got in, they are down. So I've got to sell. I don't I have many shares in any of these so I am selling all my holdings in them.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
my wife's u.s. stocks
For those of you who are interested, these are the u.s. stocks bought in my wife's u.s. trading account.
| Qty | Security | Symbol | Price |
| 100 | CISCO SYSTEMS INC | CSCO | $18.84 |
| 100 | GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY | GE | $18.29 |
| 100 | KELLOGG CO | K | $50.02 |
| 50 | MOLSON COORS BREWING-B- | TAP | $44.03 |
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
My Portfolio
My trading account is in Canadian funds, so I have decided to only buy Canadian stocks for my portfolio. My wife has a u.s. trading account so I got her to buy a few u.s. stocks from my pool.
I didn't have quite $50,000 and I didn't quite deploy all my cash. This is the final portfolio.
I didn't have quite $50,000 and I didn't quite deploy all my cash. This is the final portfolio.
| Name | Symbol | Quantity | Price | Cost | Date |
| Canadian Oil Sands Ltd | COS | 100 | $23.55 | $2,355.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Canadian Natural... | CNQ | 65 | $38.60 | $2,509.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Cenovus Energy Inc | CVE | 75 | $34.18 | $2,563.50 | 01/02/12 |
| Canadian Pacific... | CP | 35 | $68.85 | $2,409.75 | 01/02/12 |
| Royal Bank of Canada | RY | 50 | $52.31 | $2,615.50 | 01/02/12 |
| Toronto-Dominion Bank | TD | 30 | $76.31 | $2,289.30 | 01/02/12 |
| Sun Life Financial Inc. | SLF | 100 | $19.50 | $1,950.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Killam Properties Inc. | KMP | 200 | $11.61 | $2,322.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Extendicare Real Estate... | EXE.UN | 300 | $8.62 | $2,586.00 | 01/02/12 |
| H&R Real Estate... | HR.UN | 100 | $23.30 | $2,330.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Canadian National... | CNR | 30 | $80.50 | $2,415.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Petrobank Energy and... | PBG | 250 | $10.98 | $2,745.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Enbridge Inc. | ENB | 65 | $38.19 | $2,482.35 | 01/02/12 |
| BMO GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTUR... | ZGI | 100 | $19.51 | $1,951.00 | 01/02/12 |
| TransCanada Corporation | TRP | 50 | $44.50 | $2,225.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Fairfax Financial... | FFH | 5 | $440.00 | $2,200.00 | 01/02/12 |
| Cash | $7,444.13 | ||||
| Portfolio total value: | $45,392.53 |
Now, lets see what happens!
Sunday, January 1, 2012
stock selection
Hmmm. I have still selected too many stocks. This is the finalist list. I think I will use the 1 month return to whittle it down...or I could just buy ~ $2,500.00 of each stock instead of $5,000.00. I need to think about this.
| Name | Symbol | return |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | 25.56% |
| BMO GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTUR... | ZGI | 15.63% |
| Canadian National... | CNR | 20.80% |
| Canadian Pacific... | CP | 12.78% |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | 7.00% |
| Enbridge Inc. | ENB | 170.72% |
| Fairfax Financial... | FFH | 6.85% |
| GlaxoSmithKline plc... | GSK | 16.34% |
| H&R Real Estate... | HR.UN | 19.71% |
| Killam Properties Inc. | KMP | 10.72% |
| Kimberly Clark Corp | KMB | 16.69% |
| Kraft Foods Inc. | KFT | 18.57% |
| McDonald's Corporation | MCD | 30.71% |
| Royal Dutch Shell plc... | RDS.A | 9.45% |
| Starbucks Corporation | SBUX | 43.20% |
| The Coca-Cola Company | KO | 6.39% |
| Toronto-Dominion Bank | TD | 2.75% |
| TransCanada Corporation | TRP | 17.22% |
growth for one year as well as one month
These are the growth stocks
from my pool that show up in both the 1 year and 1 month growth list. [Enbridge's growth is suspect, but it is a good stock]
I guess I have my 10 stocks.
I guess I have my 10 stocks.
5% growth or more for one month
Applied from the beginning of December [2010], these are the stocks from my pool that show any growth, not just 5% or better. Notice, they are not necessarily the same stocks from the 1 year 5% or better growth list. There is, however, some overlap.
5% growth or more for a year
Applied from the beginning of the year, these are the stocks from my pool that show any growth, not just 5% or better:
| Name | Symbol | Overall 1 year return |
| Enbridge Inc. | ENB | 170.72% |
| Potash Corp./Saskatchewa... | POT | 145.40% |
| Starbucks Corporation | SBUX | 43.20% |
| McDonald's Corporation | MCD | 30.71% |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | 25.56% |
| Canadian National... | CNR | 20.80% |
| H&R Real Estate... | HR.UN | 19.71% |
| Kraft Foods Inc. | KFT | 18.57% |
| Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI | 17.62% |
| TransCanada Corporation | TRP | 17.22% |
| Kimberly Clark Corp | KMB | 16.69% |
| GlaxoSmithKline plc... | GSK | 16.34% |
| BMO GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTUR... | ZGI | 15.63% |
| Calloway Real Estate... | CWT.UN | 15.04% |
| Killam Properties Inc. | KMP | 10.72% |
| SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) | GLD | 9.57% |
| Royal Dutch Shell plc... | RDS.A | 9.45% |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | 7.00% |
| Fairfax Financial... | FFH | 6.85% |
| Canadian Pacific... | CP | 6.48% |
| The Coca-Cola Company | KO | 6.39% |
| Toronto-Dominion Bank | TD | 2.75% |
| iShares Dow Jones US... | IYE | 2.34% |
| Cenovus Energy Inc | CVE | 1.65% |
| Monsanto Company | MON | 0.62% |
| AT&T Inc. Senior Note... | ATT | 0.53% |
Applying the 5% rule to Pick Portfolio stocks
Applying my 'must have increased by 5%' rule is both enlightening and difficult.
Few if any stocks that I thought would have spectacular growth show up in any lists. I thought gas & oil stocks would have taken off over the last year, month, week. Not quite.
Applying the 5% rule from different times also gives slightly different results. To compensate for fluctuations I am applying it from a year out, 1 month out and 1 week out.
Few if any stocks that I thought would have spectacular growth show up in any lists. I thought gas & oil stocks would have taken off over the last year, month, week. Not quite.
Applying the 5% rule from different times also gives slightly different results. To compensate for fluctuations I am applying it from a year out, 1 month out and 1 week out.
Portfolio basics
I have $50,000.00 to invest in my stock portfolio, that I will fully invest. That means no cash sitting around waiting for the next best thing.
I will start out with 10 stocks, so I will therefore invest around $5,000.00 in each stock.
Boy, seeing this in writing is giving me the cold sweats. This is real money; my money. This had better work.
I will start out with 10 stocks, so I will therefore invest around $5,000.00 in each stock.
Boy, seeing this in writing is giving me the cold sweats. This is real money; my money. This had better work.
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